Forecasting the Demand for Human Resources in a Hospital using the Grey Forecasting Model

Mengnan  Wang; Mengyu Wang

doi:10.52812/msbd.110

Authors

Mengnan Wang Hebei University of Engineering
Mengyu Wang Hebei University of Engineering

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52812/msbd.110

Keywords:

Human Resource Management, Demand Forecast, Hospital, Healthcare, Grey Model, Grey Forecast, Forecasting

Abstract

The current study applies the grey forecasting model GM(1,1) to forecast human resource demand in a private hospital in Hebei, a province of China. With the analysis of its 2020-2024 staffing data, the model predicts a steadily increased number during 2025 to 2027. The forecast accuracy was examined by Mean Absolute Percentage Error. The study concludes with some suggestions for manpower demand management in the hospital.

References

Chen, J. Z., & Chen, J. Y., (2024) Analysis and Countermeasures of the Current Situation of Brain Drain in Hospital [医院人才流失现状分析及对策]. Smart Healthcare, 10(02), 12-15. https://doi.org/10.19335/j.cnki.2096-1219.2024.02.004

Cheng, H. X., Cheng, H. X., & Huang, T. K. (2009). Status quo and Forecast on the Development of Human Resources of Chinese Pharmaceutical Personnel. China Pharmacy, 7(20), 494-495. https://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-ZGYA200907008.htm

Duan, H., & Nie, W. (2022). A Novel Grey Model based on Susceptible Infected Recovered Model: A Case Study of COVD-19. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 127622. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2022.127622

Guan, H. J., Yan, Z. M., Yang, L., & Jiang, Y. (2010). Discussion on the Prediction Method of Health Manpower and Bed Demand in Chengdu City [成都市卫生人力及床位需要量预测方法探讨]. Chinese Health Service Management, 27(12), 803-817. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-ZWSG201012005.htm

Huang, Q. L., Yan, J. J., Hu, A. X., & Pei, Z. Y. (2020). Forecast of Health Resource Demand of TCM Hospitals in Shanxi Province [山西省中医类医院卫生资源需求预测]. Medicine and Society, 2(33), 62-65. https://doi.org/10.13723/j.yxysh.2020.02.015

Javed, S. A., & Cudjoe, D. (2022). A novel Grey Forecasting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Four Industries of China and India. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 29, 777-790. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2021.11.017

Liu, J., & Wang, X. L. (2019). A Review of Research on Human Resource Costs in Hospitals [医院人力资源成本研究综述]. Modern Hospitals, 11(19), 1599. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1671-332X.2019.11.012

Liu, S. F., Dang, Y. G. Fang, Z. G., & Xie, N. M. (2010). Grey Systems: Theory And Applications [灰色系统理论及其应用]. Beijing: Science Press. ISBN: 9787030273925.

Liu, S., Xu, J., Su, N., & Peng, Y. C. (2011). Prediction Method for Medical Staff Need in Community in Beijing. Chinese General Practice, 14(31), 3556-3561. https://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTotal-QKYX201131008.htm

Lv, B. L., Tang, Z. R., Peng, J., Wang, S. M., Song, T. Y., Ma, R. F., & Zou, J. C. (2024). Prediction of Medical and Health Resources Allocation in Anhui Province during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period based on Grey GM(1,1) Model [基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的安徽省"十四五"期间医疗卫生资源配置预测研究]. Soft Science of Health, 1(38), 52-57. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1003-2800.2024.01.010

National Health Commission. (2022). The 14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Health Personnel. Central People's Government of the People's Republic of China. https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2022-08/18/content_5705867.htm

Scheffler, R. M., & Arnold, D. R. (2019). Projecting Shortages and Surpluses of Doctors and Nurses in the OECD: What Looms ahead. Health Economics, Policy and Law, 2(14), 274-290. https://doi.org/10.1017/S174413311700055X

Zhao, K., Yu, S. J., Wu, L. F., Wu, X., & Wang, L. (2024). Carbon Emissions Prediction considering Environment Protection Investment of 30 Provinces in China. Environmental Research, 224, 117914. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2023.117914

.