Research on Loan Market Share Prediction Based on Grey Model and Exponential Smoothing Method

Tenghua Zhao; Xiaoying Pan; Lifeng Wu

doi:10.52812/ijgs.107

Authors

Tenghua Zhao Hebei University of Engineering
Xiaoying Pan Hebei University of Engineering
Lifeng Wu Hebei University of Engineering

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52812/ijgs.107

Keywords:

Commercial banks, loan management, grey forecast, exponential smoothing method, grey model, grey system, forecasting

Abstract

The market share of loans is one of the important indicators in the operation of banking business, representing the market penetration and business operation of commercial banks in a certain region. It largely reflects the competitive position, influence, and profitability of the enterprise. Therefore, predicting the market share of loans is of great significance. This article takes H Bank's loan market share as the research object. Firstly, analyze the loan market data of H Bank over the past decade. Secondly, the relevant knowledge of grey prediction model and exponential smoothing method was introduced. Finally, the grey prediction model and exponential smoothing method are applied to predict the market share of H Bank's loan market. The results show that the market share of H Bank's loan market has been declining year by year, and effective strategies are proposed to increase market share.

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