Impact of COVID-19 on the Big Industrial Enterprises in Hebei, China: Grey Forecast Perspective

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52812/ijgs.60

Keywords:

Grey forecast, Grey Model, COVID-19, China, Hebei, economy

Abstract

To analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the big industry enterprise in Hebei, a province of China, value added of the industrial enterprises ‘above designated size’ in Hebei Province is predicted by grey forecasting model GM (1,1). The difference between the predicted value and the actual value implied the influence. The study found that the impact of the epidemic is relatively serious in January-February 2020. The industrial value added has a difference of 27.6 billion Yuan. It is recommended that some tax reliefs should be given to the industries above designated size.

 

References

Caraka, R. E., Lee, Y., Kurniawan, R., Herliansyah, R., Kaban, P. A., Nasution, B. I., ... & Pardamean, B. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 large scale restriction on environment and economy in Indonesia. Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management, 6, 65-84. https://doi.org/10.22034/GJESM.2019.06.SI.07

Duan, H., & Nie, W. (2022). A novel grey model based on Susceptible Infected Recovered Model: A case study of COVD-19. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 127622. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2022.127622

Gu, X., Ying, S., Zhang, W., & Tao, Y. (2020). How do firms respond to COVID-19? First evidence from Suzhou, China. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56(10), 2181-2197. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2020.1789455

Liu, S., Yang, Y., & Forrest, J. (2017). Grey Data Analysis – Methods, Models and Applications. Singapore: Springer

Liu, L., Chen, Y., & Wu, L. (2020). Forecasting confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries from COVID-19 in China during the early stage. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/1405764

Ofosu-Adarkwa, J., Xie, N., & Javed, S. A. (2020). Forecasting CO2 emissions of China's cement industry using a hybrid Verhulst-GM (1, N) model and emissions' technical conversion. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 130, 109945. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.109945

Şahin, U., & Şahin, T. (2020). Forecasting the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Italy, UK and USA using fractional nonlinear grey Bernoulli model. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 138, 109948. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109948

Setyoko, P. I., & Kurniasih, D. (2022). Impact of the Covid 19 Pandemic on Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) Performance: A Qualitative Study in Indonesia. Journal of Industrial Engineering & Management Research, 3(3), 315-324. https://doi.org/10.7777/jiemar.v3i3.406

Tian, X., Wu, W.-Q., Ma, X., & Zhang. P. (2021). A new information priority accumulated grey model with hyperbolic sinusoidal term and its application. International Journal of Grey Systems, 1(2), 5-19. https://doi.org/10.52812/ijgs.27

Wu, F., Liu, G., Guo, N., Li, Z., & Deng, X. (2021). The effects of COVID-19 epidemic on regional economy and industry in China. Dili Xuebao/Acta Geographica Sinica, 1034-1048. https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb202104017

Wu, W.-Q., Ma, X., Zhang, H., Tian, X., Zhang, G.-X., & Zhang. P. (2022). A conformable fractional discrete grey model CFDGM(1,1) and its application. International Journal of Grey Systems, 2(1), 5-15. https://doi.org/10.52812/ijgs.36

Xu, L., Yang, S., Chen, J., & Shi, J. (2021). The effect of COVID-19 pandemic on port performance: Evidence from China. Ocean & Coastal Management, 209, 105660. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2021.105660

Zeng, B., Li, C., Chen, G., & Long, X. (2015). Equivalency and unbiasedness of grey prediction models. Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics, 26(1), 110-118. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/JSEE.2015.00015

.

Downloads

Published

2022-12-25

How to Cite

Hu, S., Wu, F., & Wu, L. (2022). Impact of COVID-19 on the Big Industrial Enterprises in Hebei, China: Grey Forecast Perspective. International Journal of Grey Systems, 2(2), 13–17. https://doi.org/10.52812/ijgs.60

Issue

Section

Articles

Funding data